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U.S. dollar falls as polls show Harris gaining against Trump

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Nov 05, 2024

U.S. dollar falls as polls show Harris gaining against Trump

The dollar fell Monday after weekend polls showed Vice President Kamala Harris gaining ground against former President Donald Trump as the 2024 election draws to a close. An index tracking the dollar

The dollar fell Monday after weekend polls showed Vice President Kamala Harris gaining ground against former President Donald Trump as the 2024 election draws to a close.

An index tracking the dollar hit its lowest point in more than a month on Monday morning before recovering some of those losses. Stock futures related to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq-100 showed small declines, while S&P 500 futures slightly gained. Ten-year treasury bonds are also down.

A recent ABC News (DIS) and Ipsos poll showed Harris with a 49% to 46% lead nationally against Trump ahead of Election Day. On Sunday, the final set of polls from The New York Times (NYT) and Sienna College were published, showing Harris with new gains in North Carolina and Georgia, two key battleground states.

The Times’ polls give Harris small leads — all within the margins of error — over Trump in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The polls showed the race tied in Pennsylvania — where Harris is campaigning Monday — and Michigan, while Trump had a lead in Arizona.

Also giving Harris backers hope was a new poll from famed Iowa pollster Ann Selzer published by the Des Moine Register, showing her ahead of Trump by three points in Iowa. While Iowa is not considered a battleground state, and the poll is considered to be a likely outlier, a shift in Trump-friendly Iowa could be a game-changer.

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster Selzer told the Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

Other polls, such as an NBC News poll released Sunday, show a tight contest. That poll found that Trump and Harris were tied with support from 49% of registered voters, with just 2% unsure of their choice.

On the online gambling side, betting markets have shown some gains for Harris. PredictIt, one of the leading digital platforms for election betting, had Harris gaining ground over the past week before bets pushed the odds to almost even on Sunday. Polymarket, which may be dealing with fraudulent “wash trading,” shows Harris’ chances well below her rivals’ but stronger than they have been in weeks.

Markets, believing the former president was heading toward a victory, started engaging in the Trump Trade, or when investors trade in response to a possible second Trump administration. Stocks ranging from cryptocurrencies and banks to oil and natural gas are poised to benefit from a Trump victory. With odds still tight ahead of Tuesday, some are paring back.

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